How The Corona Virus Pandemic Will End

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Three months ago, nobody knew that a new strain of corona virus existed.
Now, the virus has spread to almost all countries, with confirmed cases globally exceeding 1 million and more countries going into lock down or enhanced community quarantine to slow down the pandemic.
It has crashed economies and broken health-care systems, filled hospitals and emptied public spaces.

Now the question is, when will the corona virus pandemic end?
And how?
No one knows for sure.
And it’s probably not any time soon.
Here’s what we do know about when it may be safe to come out of our homes and and how we can resume to normal life as soon as possible.

Containment

How any epidemic could end is containment.
If the number of cases are limited to the origin of the outbreak and people who traveled from the origin do not infect more people in other locations, the spread will be minimal.

Effective vaccine

This scenario is seen as the most probable option to eradicate the disease for good.
Scientists are working hard to develop antiviral treatments or a vaccine.
The problem with this approach is it is, unfortunately, very time-consuming and expensive.
It still could be a year or more before such vaccines pass the necessary safety and efficacy tests in clinical trials.  

Viral Mutation

All viruses accumulate mutations over time or undergo changes in their genomes.
Scientists are hoping that SARS-CoV-2 will mutate in a potentially beneficial way, similarly to how the SARS virus behaved in the 2002 outbreak when it mutated into something much more severe but with a much lower infection rate for humans.

Herd immunity

There’s a general agreement that the pandemic will only end with the establishment of herd immunity.
Herd immunity occurs when enough people in the community are protected from a pathogen that it can’t take hold and dies out.

There are two ways for that;

1.1 Immunization
Researchers would have to develop a vaccine that proves safe and effective against the coronavirus, and health authorities would have to get it to a sufficient number of people.

1.2 Grimmer
It can also come about after a large portion of a community has been infected with a pathogen and develops resistance to it that way.

2. 2/3 of a population would need to be infected to reach that threshold

Anyone with COVID-19 tends, on average, to infect two or three other people. 
While this number can change based on our behavior, researchers estimate that the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 is about one-third to two-thirds of any given population.
Scientists aren’t yet sure how long people infected with COVID-19 remain immune, but so far it seems that they aren’t readily infected. 

Permanent changes in our behavior.

Permanent changes in our behaviour allows to keep transmission rates low.
This could include keeping some of the measures that have been put in place.
Or introducing rigorous testing and isolation of patients to try to stay on top of any outbreaks.

So what can you do?

In the meantime, keep practicing all the experts advice on keeping a hygiene and healthy lifestyle habits.
You have to go with the flow as novel coronavirus continues on, as the future remains unknown.
But ultimately, the future of the novel coronavirus pandemic depends on how we respond to it together.
Follow the rules regarding social distancing and self-isolation and wash your hands often.

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